CBRT Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast
The CBRT increased its year-end 2026 inflation forecast to 26%, citing rising oil and food prices as key factors behind the revision.
CBRT inflation forecast was revised upward again due to rising global energy prices and growing geopolitical risks. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) raised its year-end 2026 inflation expectation to 26% and also updated its interim targets.
Speaking during the presentation of the “Inflation Report 2026-II,” CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan stated that the interim target for 2026, previously announced at 16%, had been increased to 24%. The statement also noted that consumer inflation reached 32.4% in April.
The report highlighted that developments in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to put pressure on energy and transportation costs. It added that rising oil prices were the main driver behind the upward revision of the CBRT inflation forecast.
The Central Bank also raised its average oil price expectation for 2026 from $60.9 to $89.4 per barrel. Expectations regarding food inflation were likewise revised upward.
The board announced that the interim inflation target for 2027 had been increased from 9% to 15%, while the 2028 target was revised from 8% to 9%. Fatih Karahan stated that monetary policy tools would continue to be used in line with the goal of maintaining price stability.
Following the latest revisions to the inflation forecast, markets are expected to closely monitor the impact of the tight monetary policy on consumer spending and overall economic activity.